The current round of output increases began in April, when production was raised by 206,000 bpd in both April and May. After the United Arab Emirates quit both OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, the number of countries participating in the coordinated increase fell to seven, with the monthly increase adjusted to 188,000 bpd, a pace maintained from June through August.

　　Meanwhile, production outside OPEC continues to expand. Output from major producers such as the United States and Brazil is projected to increase by around 1.15 million bpd in 2026, further boosting supply to the global market.

　　Market pricing has already reflected the shift in supply expectations. Brent crude futures have retreated sharply from their peak of nearly 119 dollars a barrel during the Iran war.

　　Against this backdrop, OPEC+'s decision to maintain gradual production increases reflects not a single market signal but a combination of improving supply-demand fundamentals and efforts to balance differing interests among member countries.

　　GLUT LOOMS

　　Demand, however, has failed to keep pace. The market, once defined by shortage, now looks to be tilting toward surplus.

　　Manufacturing remains weak in Europe and America. Add rising stockpiles of refined products, and oil consumption is left doubly weighed down.

　　According to the International Energy Agency's latest monthly oil market report, global demand is expected to contract by around 1.1 million bpd year on year in 2026. By 2027, the global crude market could face an oversupply of roughly 5 million bpd.

　　Signs of imbalance have already emerged in the physical crude market. Saudi Aramco recently cut the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude for August-loading cargoes to Asia by 11 dollars a barrel. The move followed consecutive price cuts for June and July deliveries.