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Oil markets brace for more turbulence ahead amid geopolitical risks, supply-demand dynamics

2026-07-10 15:00   Xinhua

A man walks past a petrol station in London, Britain, March 18, 2026. (Xinhua/Li Ying)

  BEIJING, July 10 (Xinhua) -- Middle East tensions flared anew on Wednesday, sending oil prices sharply higher after the U.S. military resumed strikes on Iran. Brent crude futures jumped more than 5 percent, nearing 80 U.S. dollars a barrel.

  Investors were quick to price in the risk of further supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy shipping routes, though analysts said that while renewed tensions can push oil prices higher, the broader market outlook remains constrained by expectations of ample supply.

  SUPPLY GROWTH CONTINUES

  The continued production increase by OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, and rising output from non-OPEC producers have reinforced expectations of a looser oil market, especially as global demand remains weak.

  Once geopolitical tensions begin to ease, the market's focus is likely to shift from concerns over wartime supply disruptions to the rebalancing of global supply and demand, analysts have said.

  On the supply side, multiple factors have encouraged OPEC+ to continue unwinding production cuts. The OPEC recently announced that seven major OPEC+ producers, notably Saudi Arabia and Russia, will raise crude oil production by a combined 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. The decision marks the fifth consecutive monthly increase in production quotas.

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