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Analysis shows cutting China reliance would cost West $23t

2026-07-14 09:27   环球时报网英文版

  Workers fulfill orders and testing products in a production workshop of a company in Haikou, South China"s Hainan Province on May 23, 2026. The company utilized production equipment imported under Hainan Free Trade Port"s zero-tariff policy to independently manufacture and successfully export 773,000 transistors, with a total value of 1.849 million yuan.

  An economic analysis has suggested that Europe and the US would need to invest an extra $23.6 trillion over the next 25 years to end their reliance on China in critical industries such as manufacturing and technology, which Chinese experts said serves as the latest evidence that Western countries" so-called "decoupling" from China is unrealistic and comes with enormous costs.

  According to a report by the Financial Times on Monday, consultancy EY-Parthenon calculated that replicating the infrastructure, research, software, manufacturing and supply chains currently reliant on China would cost the US $13.7 trillion, the eurozone $9.1 trillion and the UK $800 billion by 2050.

  At $550 billion a year, the annual investment required from the US government and American companies to decouple from China is roughly equivalent to the $600 billion invested by big US technology groups in data centers in 2025. For the EU, the spending required would amount to a near doubling of its annual budget, EY-Parthenon said.

  The additional collective investment of an average of $940 billion a year for 25 years was, in theory, "not insurmountable" the EY-Parthenon analysts wrote. But it would be required on top of existing investments in energy, technology, defense and infrastructure.

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