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Analysis shows cutting China reliance would cost West $23t

2026-07-14 09:27   环球时报网英文版

  "The report, through a wealth of data, clearly demonstrates the close degree of economic and trade cooperation among China, the US, and Europe. China"s strong industrial capabilities and economic scale play an irreplaceable and vital role in the economic development and long-term sustainability of the US and Europe," Zhou Mi, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Monday.

  Zhou noted that if the West genuinely attempted a full decoupling from China, the damage inflicted on its economies would be long-term and profound. This harm would not only be reflected in enormous financial costs, but also in the fact that many development drivers and industrial supports would be extremely difficult to replace effectively.

  Hu Qimu, a professor at the Maritime Silk Road Institute of Huaqiao University, told the Global Times on Monday that due to the relatively severe industrial hollowing-out in Europe and the US, their industrial sectors are incomplete and heavily reliant on China"s manufacturing capabilities. To achieve "decoupling," they would need to independently rebuild the missing industrial categories.

  However, even if Europe and the US invested enormous sums to reconstruct some of these sectors, the costs would be extremely high, ultimately leading to a sharp rise in expenses for downstream industries and consumers, Hu said, noting that "Therefore, decoupling is simply unrealistic."

  The EY-Parthenon analysis found that given that Chinese-made goods typically enjoyed a 20- to 100-percent factory price advantage over their Western competitors, reducing reliance on Chinese manufacturing would push up prices and drive inflation.

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